Template: timeline with invented durations
| Stage | What happens | Example duration (invented) | Who knows |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Quote and decision | Quotes compared, approvals given | 2 weeks | You |
| 2. Order confirmation and deposit | Purchase order, payment terms, specification confirmed | 1 week | You and supplier |
| 3. Production | Materials, manufacture and inspection | 6 weeks | Supplier |
| 4. Pickup and export | Cargo ready, booked, export formalities | 1 week | Supplier and forwarder |
| 5. Ocean or air transit | Sailing or flight | 4 weeks by sea | Forwarder |
| 6. Arrival and customs | Entry filed, duties paid, possible holds | 1 week | Broker |
| 7. Inland delivery | Trucking to your depot | 1 week | Carrier |
| 8. Receiving and inspection | Unloading, counting, checking | 3 days | You |
| Total (example) | about 16 weeks |
How to use it
Lead time is built from stage durations you ask for, not from the total somebody quotes.
- Copy the table and ask each party for their stage durations and the range.
- Count back from the date you need the parts on the shelf, not the date they ship.
- Add a buffer for the stages with most variation, usually customs and transit.
- Record the real durations of each order to improve your estimates.
Where time hides
Lead time is the sum of several waits, and the longest one is rarely production.
- Waiting for approvals or a signed specification.
- Production queues in busy seasons or around factory holidays.
- Booking lead time for freight.
- Customs holds from incomplete documents.
Limits
All durations here are invented. Real durations vary by supplier, route, season and product.
Update it after every order
Add a final column for the actual duration of each stage. After three orders, you will have a table of your own that is far more useful than any generic estimate.
Using ranges, not single numbers
Ask each party for a best case and a worst case for their stage. A supplier who says production takes six weeks may mean four in a quiet month and nine in a busy one. Add the worst cases for the stages that vary most to get a latest-order date you can defend. Then add the approval time on your side, which is easy to forget and often the longest single wait.
Boundary: All durations are invented; real figures vary and must come from your supplier, forwarder and broker.
Further reading on this site.
What should we ask before shipping long blade sections to a depot with limited unloading equipment? ↗How to Source Carbide Snow Plow Blades From an Overseas Manufacturer ↗Sourcing carbide wear parts guide ↗Post-Season Review Agenda: Twelve Questions on Edges, Hardware and Stock ↗Five-Minute Pre-Storm Briefing: Routes, Hazards, Edge Condition, Spare Plan ↗County Winter-Prep Calendar: April Review to November Readiness ↗
