Steps
A factory shutdown is a fixed date you cannot move, so the plan has to be built backwards from it.
- Ask for the full-year calendar, with the last production day before and the first day after each closure. A closure date alone does not tell you when production actually stops.
- Map those closures against your season start, storm period and stock count dates. The risk is not the closure; it is the closure landing on your reorder point.
- Work back from the date you need stock: subtract transit, customs and inspection, then production time. Each step has its own delay, and they stack.
- Order so that production finishes before the shutdown, not merely starts. An order that begins in the last week usually finishes after the break.
- Get written confirmation of which orders are produced before the closure. A verbal assurance is not a schedule.
- Review after the season which orders slipped, and why. The next plan should start from that list, not from scratch.
Template: calendar overlay
| Item | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier last production day before closure | Supplier email | |
| Supplier first production day after closure | Supplier email | |
| Forwarder or port cutoff | Forwarder | |
| Transit time (typical, quoted) | Forwarder | |
| Customs and inspection allowance | Broker | |
| Date stock is needed | Your plan | |
| Buffer you add | Your decision | |
| Latest order date | Calculated |
Questions for the supplier
Four questions turn a published holiday calendar into something you can actually plan against.
- Is a closure staged, with workers leaving earlier or returning later than the stated dates? Production usually stops before the notice date.
- Do raw material suppliers close at the same time? A mill shutdown shifts your lead time even if the factory stays open.
- Are there backlogs after the closure that slow the first weeks? The first weeks back are usually slower than the calendar suggests.
- Can you hold stock or finished goods for our order before the closure? Pre-building is the only reliable hedge.
Spread the risk
If one supplier’s calendar clashes with your season, consider splitting orders across suppliers with different calendars, or ordering part of the season’s edges early to hold in your own stock.
Limits
I give no dates or typical delays. Use each supplier’s written calendar.
Boundary: No shutdown dates or delays are stated; closures vary by supplier, country and year, so get each calendar in writing.
Further reading on this site.
The Winter Parts Tendering Calendar: Planning Awards Before the First Freeze ↗The supplier wants to move production to another factory. What questions belong in the review? ↗Our Factory ↗Photographing Edge Wear Consistently: A Phone Protocol for Month-to-Month Comparison ↗Labelling Edges by Truck and Position: A Marking Scheme So Wear Data Follows the Edge ↗Mountain Passes and Steep Grades: Edge and Setup Considerations at Altitude ↗
